Emerging infectious diseases are a growing concern in wildlife conservation. This paper uses innovative methods developed for the real-time study of disease epidemics in humans and applies them to an Arctic seabird species experiencing a new series of highly virulent outbreaks of avian cholera to predict disease dynamics and assess the threat to population viability. Samuel A. Iverson et al. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12585